New data gathered by Survey USA shows Barack Obama beating John McCain 280 to 258 in the electoral college if the election were held today. According to the same data, Hillary Clinton also beats McCain, albeit by 4 less electoral votes.
This new data is interesting in that it adds a regional aspect to the discussion of which candidate is better prepared to lead the Democrats. Would Democrats rather make major inroads in western states, Virginia and North Dakota, at the cost of Florida and Pennsylvania; or would they rather take Florida at the cost of Michigan, and make no major inroads at all?
The fact that this data shows Clinton losing Michigan is perhaps the most surprising part of this whole study, because she is fighting so hard to get Michigan’s delegates seated at the convention when Obama’s name was not on the Michigan ballot. Obama should either get some delegates from a state in which he posts high numbers, or the DNC should stick to the rules and disallow the entire Michigan delegation altogether. But I digress…
What we can be sure of is that these SUSA electoral numbers will change. In this very strange election cycle anything has become possible and major electoral shifts can occur in a matter of days. I doubt very much that Clinton can win Florida, especially if McCain chooses Florida’s popular Republican Governor Crist as his running mate. If Clinton loses Florida, while failing to pick up any other red states on the electoral map, McCain beats her in November. Similar questions can, of course, be made of Obama’s current tally. While I believe in Obama’s ability to win over prominent red and purple states, I feel less confident about his ability to win in Ohio.
The way around all of this mess is a joint ticket. While I am not keen on Senator Obama sharing a ticket with Senator Clinton, it maybe the only way to solve the current impasse and unify the party around the strongest ticket the Democrats have fielded since Kennedy/Johnson (or even one of the FDR tickets). Democrats seem to forget that the primary objective of politics is to win, that no policy objectives can be reached without victory. As distasteful as it might be to many Democrats, Obama, and his appeal to the young and the formerly disenfranchised, must form a coalition with Clinton, and her appeal to the old guard and the white working-class base.
No matter what happens, Democrats should be proud of their gains over the last 2 years. Compare the recent SUSA data with the same data taken in November 2006 for both Obama and Clinton to see how far the Democratic party has come.
March 9th, 2008 at 9:47 am
An Obama/Clinton,Clinton/Obama ticket would be a disaster for the Democrats. The fact that either won would be a heartbeat away from the presidency scares the heck out of the groups that oppose them now. Do you think Jews would be less concerned of Obama’s minister’s relationship with Farakan(sic) if Obama is number two on the ticket? Do you think Blacks would be satisfied with their candidate being told to “go to the back of the bus and do and say as whitey tells you to”? People who think that this would be an unbeatable ticket have a woeful misunderstanding of the strength and depth of the oppositon to either respective candidate.
Thank you
March 10th, 2008 at 11:22 am
Nice post!
It bothers me that Hillary continues to pull the Democratic party down in her pursuit of the presidency. I came of age during the 1st Clinton presidency and look back on that era with some fondness. However, both the statistics and popular sentiment seem to be pointing toward Change and she does not represent that.
This has been a great primary season: a good set of candidates and a few real discussions about the issues that matter, but we need to unite the party and get ready for McCain. Its time for Hillary to drop out!
March 11th, 2008 at 8:51 am
While I believe that a Clinton/Obama ticket might be detrimental to the party for the reasons mentioned in Mike’s comment, I doubt that an Obama/Clinton ticket would be as detrimental.
There are 3 other other possible Obama running mates: Gov. Tim Kaine from Virginia, Gov. Kathleen Sebelius of Kansas, and Gov. Bill Richardson of New Mexico. Of these running mates only Kathleen Sebelius brings as much as Clinton would bring to the ticket, as she is a strong woman with a proven track record. I would actually prefer Gov. Sebelius because she also happens to be from very red state and I can see Kansas going for Obama if she runs with him.
The fact is that Democrats do care about identity, so Gov. Sebelius might help ease tensions between older women who passionately want Senator Clinton in the white house and the Obama campaign who many of these women blame for Senator Clinton’s loss.